OIL BELOW SIXTY DOLLARS, FOR HOW LONG

OIL IS DOWN BELOW SIXTY DOLLARS. IT IS BACK TO ITS MORE NATURAL PRICE LEVEL. THE DEMAND HAS NOT DRAMATICALLY DECREASED, SO WHY IS IT LOWER.

THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON PERHAPS IS THE SPECULATORS ARE OUT OF THE OIL GAME. WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE STOCK MARKET, THE FUNDS FOR COMMODITY SPECULATION HAS DRIED UP. SO WE ARE BACK TO A NATURAL STATE OF THE PRICE OF OIL. THE DEMAND FROM EMERGING MARKETS MOST LIKELY HAS NOT TAPERED ONE BIT. THE REASON GIVEN FOR OIL BUBBLE WAS DEMAND FROM THE EMERGING MARKETS, THIS WAS BOGUS ISSUE ALL ALONG. THE OIL BUBBLE HAS NOW BURST AND OIL SHOULD BE IN THIS RANGE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS. WHEN THE SPECULATORS COME BACK OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AGAIN.

McCAIN, OBAMA WHO WINS

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY OR IN NOVEMBER 08, McCAIN WOULD WIN. IT WILL BE A LANDSLIDE WIN. THERE ARE MANY REASONS FOR HIS COMING VICTORY. THE BIGGEST BEING OBAMA'S YOUTH AND LACK OF EXPERIENCE. IT IS ALWAYS FUN TO PREDICT, AND SAY I TOLD YOU SO.

OIL AFTER THE OLYMPICS

OIL IS HEADED DOWN, DRIVEN SOUTH BY THE APPRECIATING DOLLAR AND LOWER DEMAND. THE DEMAND FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES SUCH AS INDIA AND CHINA WAS OVERRATED TO START WITH.

ONCE THE OLYMPICS ARE OVER EXPECT THE OIL TO BE DELOW $100, TRADING BETWEEN $90-$100. THE CONSUMER IS SPOOKED, THE DEMAND FOR OIL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE.

THE OIL BUBBLE HAS BURST AS PREDICTED.

IN MY JUNE POST, I HAD PREDICTED THE BURSTING OF THE OIL BUBBLE. SO IT HAS.
HOW FAR DOWN WILL OIL GO. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE $70-$80 PER BARREL, BY YEARS END. CONSUMERS HAVE WOKEN UP AND ARE MOTIVATED TO CONSERVE AND USE LESS OIL. SO $ 75/BARREL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY,

THE MAJOR FINANCIAL COMPANY ANALYSTS PREDICTED OIL GOING TO $200/BARREL
THEY WERE WRONG ON SUB PRIME , AND ON OIL. MAY IT IS TIME FOR WALL STREET TO BE IN TOUCH WITH MAIN STREET.

OIL EVEN NOW PROVIDES THE BEST BANG FOR THE BUCK, ie IT PROVIDES A QUICK SOURCE OF ENERGY AND POWER. TILL A REAL ALTERNATIVE COMES ALONG OIL WILL BE MAIN SOURCE OF VEHICLE POWER.

Plenty of oil, No Buyers

So much for the supply and demand theory. Pretty soon we shall see a drop in prices and one more speculative bubble in oil will burst.


From The Times
May 22, 2008
They're wrong about oil, by George

Rip up your textbooks, the doubling of oil prices has little to do with China's appetite

Now consider the situation today in oil markets: the Gulf, according to Mr Rothman, is crammed with supertankers chartered by oil-producing governments to hold the inventories of oil they are pumping but cannot sell. That physical oil is in excess supply at today's prices does not mean that producers are somehow cheating by storing their oil in tankers or keeping it in the ground. All it suggests is that there are few buyers for physical oil cargoes at today's prices, but there are plenty of buyers for pieces of paper linked to the price of oil next month and next year. This situation is exactly analogous to the bubble in credit markets a year ago, where nobody wanted to buy sub-prime mortgage bonds, but there was plenty of demand for “financial derivatives” that allowed investors to bet on the future value of these bonds.

In short, the standard economic assumption that supply and demand drive prices is only a starting point for understanding financial markets. In boom-bust cycles, the textbook theory is not just slightly inaccurate but totally wrong.

Good article, more@

[link to www.timesonline.co.uk]

OIL: SUBSIDIZING THE MIDDLE CLASS.

INDIA AND CHINA SUBSIDE OIL\GAS TO THEIR PEOPLE. A FEW PRIVILEGED9 in the millions) IN INDIA AND CHINA OWN CARS. SO WE ARE WITNESSING A NEW PHENOMENA IN TWO POPULOUS SOCIALIST ECONOMIES TAKING FROM THE POOR AND LOWER MIDDLE CLASS AND GIVING A PRICE BREAK TO THE MIDDLE CLASS AND RICH. THIS KEEPS THE DEMAND FOR OIL HIGH AND PRICES HIGH IN THE WEST.

MAYBE TH

PEAK OIL DEMAND\$500 BARREL OIL

PEAK OIL DEMAND THEORY IS THAT AT SOME POINT,IN THIRTY OR FORTY YEARS, NO MORE NEW OIL IS FOUND, THE DEMAND FOR OIL KEEPS RISING. SO IN ABOUT FIFTY TO SIXTY YEARS THERE IS VERY LITTLE OIL LEFT. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO US. IT MEANS OUR GRANDCHILDREN MAY NOT SEE A OIL BASED CAR, OR THEY MAY NEVER FLY ON A PLANE POWERED BY OIL.

TODAY WE MAKE FASTER COMPUTERS, GREAT SOCIAL WEBSITES, GOOGLES ETC, BUT NO MEANINGFUL ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOLUTIONS. THE BEST ENGINEERING TALENT IS MAKING THINGS THAT ARE FUN BUT MOSTLY IRRELEVANT TO OUR FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS.

THIS MEAN HIGHER OIL WHICH WE ARE ALREADY SEEING. OIL MAY BE AT $200/BARREL IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. $300/BARREL IN TEN TO FIFTEEN YEARS AND WE GO TO $500/BARREL BEFORE TWENTY FIVE YEARS. SO ONLY THE RICH WILL TRAVEL IN PLANES AND CARS.

THE QUESTION IS ,WILL WE BE ABLE TO REPLACE OIL AS A SOURCE OF ENERGY. THE ANSWER IS NO. WE MAY BE INCAPABLE OF REPLICATING A NATURE'S WONDER, OIL. SINCE PRIVATE ENTERPRISE LOOKS FOR SHORT TERM PROFITS, MODERN GOVTS ARE BEHOLDEN TO OIL INTERESTS, NO NEW TECHNOLOGY WILL EMERGE TO REPLACE OI, ALTERNATIVES MAYBE.

GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY DIFFERENT FUTURE FOR MANKIND , THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. SO LET US EXPLORE THIS ENVIRONMENT IN OUR FUTURE BLOGS

DEMOCRATS LOSE IT IN 08

The Republicans have a Presidential nominee. The Democrats are in a slug fest, trying to select a nominee. In the process the Democrats have exposed their a seemingly disorganized selection process. Primaries,

THIS BLOG WAS WRITTEN IN MAR. LOOK LIKE I AM GOING TO RIGHT.

Mr Keith Big "O"

Mr Keith O , of MSNBC has a great, humorous show. Interesting to watch, great political commentary. If you are looking for a super example of a pro Obama tilted TV anchor it is Mr Keith.
The only thing he lacks on the show is a Obama- Tshirt. Keith and his guests beat up on hillary every day, it is must watch to see a great example of the Obama tilted media.