TECH BUSINESS

MELTING ICE, POPULATION, CLIMATE, POLAR BEARS

2009-11-24T08:36:00.001-05:00

Earth Policy Institute

Plan B 3.0 Book Byte

June 3, 2009

MELTING ICE COULD LEAD TO MASSIVE WAVES OF CLIMATE REFUGEES

Lester R. Brown

As the earth warms, the melting of the earth’s two massive ice sheets--Antarctica and Greenland--could raise sea level enormously. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt, it would raise sea level 7 meters (23 feet). Melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level 5 meters (16 feet). But even just partial melting of these ice sheets will have a dramatic effect on sea level rise. Senior scientists are noting that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level rise during this century of 18 to 59 centimeters are already obsolete and that a rise of 2 meters during this time is within range.

Assessing the prospects for the Greenland ice sheet begins with looking at the warming of the Arctic region. A 2005 study, conducted by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) team, an international group of 300 scientists, concluded that the Arctic is warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the planet. It found that in the regions surrounding the Arctic, including Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, winter temperatures have already climbed by 3-4 degrees Celsius (4–7 degrees Fahrenheit) over the last half-century.

In testimony before the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, an Inuit speaking on behalf of the 155,000 Inuits who live in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and the Russian Federation, described their struggle to survive in the fast-changing Arctic climate as “a snapshot of what is happening to the planet.” She called the warming of the Arctic “a defining event in the history of this planet.”

The ACIA report described how the retreat of the sea ice has devastating consequences for polar bears, whose very survival may be at stake. A subsequent report indicated that polar bears, struggling to survive, are turning to cannibalism. Also threatened are ice-dwelling seals, a basic food source for the Inuit.

Since this 2005 report, there is new evidence that the problem is worse than previously thought. A team of scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research concluded that the ice is melting much faster than climate models had predicted. They found that from 1979 to 2006 the summer sea ice shrinkage accelerated to 9.1 percent a decade. In 2007, Arctic sea ice shrank some 20 percent below the previous record set in 2005. This suggests that the sea could be ice-free well before 2050, the earliest date projected by the IPCC in its 2007 report. Some scientists now think that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in the summer by 2030, if not earlier. Arctic scientist Julienne Stroeve observed that shrinking Arctic sea ice may have reached “a tipping point that could trigger a cascade of climate change reaching into Earth’s temperate regions.”

Scientists are concerned that “positive feedback loops” may be starting to kick in. This term refers to a situation where a trend already under way begins to reinforce itself. Two of these potential feedback mechanisms are of particular concern to scientists. The first, in the Arctic, is the albedo effect. When incoming sunlight strikes the ice in the Arctic Ocean, up to 70 percent of it is reflected back into space. Only 30 percent is absorbed as heat. As the Arctic sea ice melts, however, and the incoming sunlight hits the much darker open water, only 6 percent is reflected back into space and 94 percent is converted into heat. This may account for the accelerating shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice and the rising regional temperature that directly affects the Greenland ice sheet.

If all the ice in the Arctic Ocean melts, it will not affect sea level because the ice is already in the water. But it will lead to a much warmer Arctic region as more of the incoming sunlight is absorbed as heat. This is of particular concern because Greenland lies largely within the Arctic Circle. As the Arctic region warms, the island’s ice sheet--up to 1 mile thick in places--is beginning to melt.

The second positive feedback mechanism also has to do with ice melting. As an ice sheet’s surface begins to melt, some of the water filters down through cracks in the glacier, lubricating the surface between the glacier and the rock beneath it. This accelerates the glacial flow and the calving of icebergs into the surrounding ocean. The relatively warm water flowing through the glacier also carries surface heat deep inside the ice sheet far faster than would simple conduction.

Several recent studies report that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating. A study published in Science in September 2006 reported that the rate of ice melt on the vast island has tripled over the last several years. In October 2006, a team of NASA scientists reported that the flow of glaciers into the sea was accelerating. Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said, “None of this has been predicted by numerical models, and therefore all projections of the contribution of Greenland to sea level [rise] are way below reality.”

At the other end of the earth, the 2-kilometer-thick Antarctic ice sheet, which covers a continent about twice the size of Australia and contains 70 percent of the world’s fresh water, is also beginning to melt. Ice shelves that extend from the continent into the surrounding seas are starting to break up at an alarming pace.

In May 2007, a team of scientists from NASA and the University of Colorado reported satellite data showing widespread snow-melt on the interior of the Antarctic ice sheet over an area the size of California. Konrad Steffen, one of the scientists involved, observed, “Antarctica has shown little to no warming in the recent past with the exception of the Antarctic Peninsula, but now large regions are showing the first signs of the impacts of warming.”

The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) has analyzed the effect of a 10-meter rise in sea level, providing a sense of what the melting of the world’s largest ice sheets could mean. The IIED study begins by pointing out that 634 million people live along coasts at or below 10 meters above sea level, in what they call the Low Elevation Coastal Zone. This massive vulnerable group includes one eighth of the world’s urban population.

One of the countries most vulnerable is China, with 144 million potential climate refugees. India and Bangladesh are next, with 63 and 62 million respectively. Viet Nam has 43 million vulnerable people, and Indonesia, 42 million. Others in the top 10 include Japan with 30 million, Egypt with 26 million, and the United States with 23 million.

The world has never seen such a massive potential displacement of people. Some refugees could simply retreat to higher ground within their own country. Others--facing extreme crowding in the interior regions of their homeland--would seek refuge elsewhere. Bangladesh, already one of the world’s most densely populated countries, would face a far greater concentration: in effect, 62 million of its people would be forced to move in with the 97 million living on higher ground.

Not only would some of the world’s largest cities, such as Shanghai, Kolkata, London, and New York, be partly or entirely inundated, but vast areas of productive farmland would also be lost. The rice-growing river deltas and floodplains of Asia would be covered with salt water, depriving Asia of part of its food supply.

In the end, the question is whether governments are strong enough to withstand the political and economic stress of relocating large numbers of people while suffering losses of housing and industrial facilities. The relocation is not only an internal matter, as a large share of the displaced people will want to move to other countries. Can governments withstand these stresses, or will more and more states fail?

# # #

Adapted from Chapter 3, “Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas ,” in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008), available for free downloading and purchase at www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB3/index.htm.

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E-mail: jlarsen (at) earthpolicy.org

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The Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) within the Earth Institute at Columbia University has a new report on the human migrations that may occur as a result of climate change. The report says climate change may cause vast human migrations on an order not previously experienced. The report, In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Displacement and Migration, was written by CIESIN, the United Nations University, and CARE International. See http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/ to download a copy of the report.

New Report Says Climate Change May Cause Human Population Migrations

The map depicts glaciers (white with blue border) in the Himalayas and the major rivers that flow from them. The rivers that drain these mountains move through some of the most populous areas in the world, yet the glaciers that feed the rivers are in retreat.

A new report says climate change may cause vast human migrations on an order not previously experienced. The report, In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Displacement and Migration, was written by researchers at CIESIN, the United Nations University, and CARE International. Drawing on empirical evidence from a new survey of every continent, with original maps created by CIESIN that pinpoint potential locations of critical displacements, the report explores how climate change is already causing people to leave their homes, and details some of the specific ways displacement may occur over the next decades. For example, the report says, melting glaciers will negatively affect agricultural systems throughout Asia and contribute to the risk of flooding. Natural disasters will continue to cause short-term migration, while the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods—such as subsistence herding, farming, and fishing—will cause long-term migration. Developing countries will be most vulnerable to migration and displacement, with less capacity to implement adaptation measures. A potential downward spiral from resulting ecological degradation and breakdown of social structures could ensue, leading to political instability which would further exacerbate population displacement.

The report calls for seeing climate-related migration and displacement as global in nature, not simply isolated local crises. It aims to inform critical policy making by presenting a comprehensive discussion of the linkages between environmental change, displacement, and migration.

See: Climate and Migration Report

Best wishes,

Bill

---

William N. Ryerson

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Stop Oil Speculation

2009-11-24T08:23:00.003-05:00

Excessive oil speculation is raising travel costs this holiday season. As you spend Thanksgiving with family and friends, please share with them your concerns about how oil speculation is affecting them. By educating everyone about this important issue, we can increase the likelihood of Congress acting soon before gasoline and heating costs rise any higher. Please ask your family and friends to sign up for e-mail alerts, so they can join our efforts to keep energy prices affordable. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote sometime in December on H.R. 3795, the Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets Act of 2009. This legislation will increase transparency, close loopholes and make it more difficult for Wall Street speculators to manipulate energy prices. We need to encourage legislators to vote for this important measure, and to be successful we will need your help. During the week the House of Representatives votes on this bill, we will e-mail you to ask that you contact your member of Congress. This coordinated action by hundreds of thousands of supporters will make a big difference in building support for reform. We recently redesigned our Web site, www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com, to help influence policymakers during this critical time in the legislative process. We encourage you to visit the site and to follow us on Facebook or Twitter to access up-to-date information on this issue. Finally, if you manage a Web site or blog, you can help educate the public about excessive oil speculation by adding one of our Web stickers to your site. We appreciate your continued support. Together, we can help contribute to America's economic recovery. Thank you, The Coalition to Stop Oil Speculation Now Web Sticker Code

Put this interactive Web Sticker on your site.

		To add the sticker to your site simply copy the following HTML to a page on your site. To forward a link to this page to a friend, click on the Tell A Friend link below.

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ARC Loans, SBA, Congress

2009-10-30T08:51:00.002-04:00

Congress, doled out Major banks, JP Morgan, Citbank, totally failed banks, But when the time came for the Congress to pass a helping hand to small business, it asked that the small business be profitable. So it hard to get loans from Banks, from SBA. Americas answer to Small Business which need help, a gentle forget it.

September 4, 2009, 6:16 pm

The Official A.R.C. Outcry Begins

By Robb Mandelbaum

The frustration that Agenda readers have shared over the Small Business Administration’s A.R.C. loan program (see here and here and here) has finally percolated up to some of those responsible for fashioning it in the first place. On Tuesday, Senator Bill Nelson, Democrat of Florida, held a press conference in North Fort Myers, where, according to the North Fort Myers Neighbor, a weekly paper, he decried the dearth of A.R.C. loans in Florida as “appalling.”

Senator Nelson placed blame first on the banks, which don’t want to make the A.R.C. loans, he said, because they “can make a lot more money by making the small business owner borrow their money on their credit cards.” He also notes that big bailout recipients such as Citibank and Bank of America still aren’t participating. “That’s simply not right,” he said.

Fair enough, to an extent — as we’ve reported elsewhere, banks see too much effort for not enough profit in the program to make the loans. But then Senator Nelson attacked the S.B.A.’s implementation of the program. Its underwriting rules, he said, “are so stringent that very few businesses . . . can qualify. They say they have to be in business for two years but one of those years has got to be profitable. We’re in the middle of a recession — they can’t be profitable.”

Legislators like to kick around the bureaucracy, so Senator Nelson’s comments are not surprising. In this case, however, they are misdirected — he should be pointing his finger at his colleagues who drafted the provision, as well as those who voted for it. (The latter would include, incidentally, Senator Nelson.) It was Congress that insisted eligible business be both “viable” and “experiencing immediate financial hardship,” a practically impossible balancing act in which the S.B.A.’s profitability rule makes pretty good sense.

It was also Congress that capped the loan size at $35,000. Pair that with the strict accountability that lawmakers also demanded of stimulus programs, which is why the S.B.A. rules are so stringent, and you get a loan that is thoroughly unappetizing to banks. One could argue, I suppose, that the S.B.A. has overreacted to the political climate, but you can’t really blame it for that. The S.B.A. is caught in its own untenable balancing act: If it had been too generous with program requirements, instances of fraudulent lending would almost certainly have emerged, and perhaps those instances would have been widespread.

Then Senator Nelson, or one of his enterprising colleagues, would instead be holding a press conference decrying S.B.A. incompetence and calling for heads to roll.

Small Business , Big Bank

2009-10-30T08:49:00.001-04:00

Do They Want Our Business or Not?

By Jay Goltz

I was watching TV the other night when an ad came on for Bank of America. It had a business banker — an actor, I assume — professing his dedication to small business. Now, I’m a Cubs fan, so I’m used to wanting to throw a shoe at the television. But this was worse; the Cubs at least try (I think).

Lots of the big banks do this, but Bank of America is the bank that bought out my local business bank, LaSalle, a couple of years ago. Many of the people I know in small business had used the bank for years. After Bank of America arrived, the old LaSalle went from being the bank for small business to being the bank for big small business. The term small business can refer to a $200,000 business — or a $200 million business. Overnight, the rules changed, the services changed, and the attitude changed. So did many of the employees, from the president down.

My own realization that I needed to change banks started with a little change — quarters, dimes, and nickels to be exact. I have a soda machine that we take the change from every couple of weeks. We had been taking it to the LaSalle branch down the street to have it counted in a machine. After the buyout, we were told the machine was broken. Really? They said we could leave the bag of change, and they would send it downtown to the main bank. We could then look for the credit on our bank statement. I later mentioned this to a friend of mine who works at a different Bank of America branch. He said he was at a meeting at which the branch managers were told to tell customers that the change machines were broken.

NewlyWeds\ Very Old, Very New

2009-10-30T08:38:00.002-04:00

Somali man, '112', weds girl, 17

The couple posed for photos at the wedding celebrations

Hundreds of people have attended a wedding in central Somalia between a man who says he is 112 years old, and his teenage wife.

Ahmed Muhamed Dore - who already has 13 children by five wives - said he would like to have more with his new wife, Safia Abdulleh, who is 17 years old.

"Today God helped me realise my dream," Mr Dore said, after the wedding in the region of Galguduud.

The bride's family said she was "happy with her new husband".

Mr Dore said he and his bride - who is young enough to be his great-great-grand-daughter - were from the same village in Somalia and that he had waited for her to grow up to propose.

"I didn't force her, but used my experience to convince her of my love; and then we agreed to marry," the groom said.

Goat-skin documents

The BBC's Mohammed Olad Hassan in Mogadishu says the marriage, in the town of Guriceel, is being described by Somali historians as the first of its kind in the Horn of Africa nation for more than a century.

Our reporter says reaction to news of the marriage has been mixed.

Some people said while it was allowed under Islamic law, they were concerned about the age gap, but others were happy that age was not a barrier to love.

Mr Dore told the BBC he was born in Dhusamareeb in central Somalia in 1897 - and has a traditional birth certificate, written on goat skin by his father.

Our correspondent says he has an interesting history - in 1941 he joined the British colonial forces as a soldier for 10 years and then served as a police officer after Somalia won independence in 1960.

Altogether, Mr Dore has 114 children and grandchildren. His oldest son is 80 years old and three of his wives have died.

He says he hopes his new bride will give him more children.

"It is a blessing to have someone you love to take care of you," he said.

AMERICAN DRIVING A LOT LESS SINCE OIL SHOCK 07

2009-07-06T09:21:00.004-04:00

AMERICAN ARE DRIVING 4% LESS SINCE 2007. IT IS LIKE TAKING OFF ABOUT 10 MILLION CARS OF THE US ROADS. YET WITH THIS AND A GLOBAL RECESSION OIL PRICES GO HIGHER. LOOKS LIKE OIL PRICES ARE HEADED SHARPLY LOWER, AND

SOME INVESTORS ARE LIKELY TO LOSE A BUNDLE.

Holiday arrives as Americans are driving a lot fewer miles.

Updated 3d 13h ago | Comments 141 | Recommend 30

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Enlarge	By Jacquelyn Martin, AP

Since the number of miles traveled by motor vehicles in the USA peaked in November 2007, the nation's 12-month total has dropped by 123 billion miles.

By Larry Copeland and Paul Overberg, USA TODAY

The nation heads into the Independence Day holiday weekend amid the longest and steepest decline in driving since the invention of the automobile.

Since the number of miles traveled by motor vehicles in the USA peaked in November 2007, the nation's 12-month total has dropped by 123 billion miles, or slightly more than 4%. That's a bigger decline than the drop of just above 3% during the 1979-80 Iranian revolution that triggered a spike in gasoline prices in the USA.

The 4% drop is the equivalent of taking between 8 million and 10 million drivers off the road.

"We may be witnessing the beginning of a fundamental shift in American driving habits," says Ed McMahon, senior research fellow at the Urban Land Institute, a non-profit group that promotes innovative development.

The Federal Highway Administration's miles-traveled report for April, the most recent available, suggests a slight flattening out. While April's total was up 0.6% from April 2008, continuing rises in joblessness and gas prices are likely to limit driving, McMahon says.

FIND MORE STORIES IN:

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FUEL FORUM: Discuss how prices are affecting your holiday budget

As the USA prepares to celebrate the Fourth of July, many Americans are choosing to watch fireworks close to home. AAA projects that the number of people taking a trip of 50 miles or more this holiday weekend will drop 1.9% from a year ago. The leisure travel organization attributes the projected decline to uncertainty about the economy, "especially rising joblessness and sagging personal incomes." The recent spike in gas prices also might be a concern, AAA says.

Gas prices were the driving force behind the nation's change in driving habits, says analyst Alan Pisarski, author of Commuting in America. "When people saw $3 a gallon, when they saw $4 a gallon, it was something akin to sticker shock. It really did have an effect on people's behavior." He says people started taking transit, carpooling, merging trips and cutting back on vacation travel. Many stayed with alternative modes of transportation even after gas prices retreated last year.

Bernard Assaf, 36, a software engineer from a northern Atlanta suburb, says he won't get back in his car for the 40-mile round trip to work even if gas prices plummet. With help from The Clean Air Campaign, an Atlanta non-profit that promotes transportation alternatives, he now carpools to a satellite parking lot 7 miles from home, then takes public transit to his office. "For me, it's not just about the price of gas," he says. "If I put 40 miles a day on my car vs. 14 miles, that's a big difference. I've gotten too used to doing things besides gripping the steering wheel to go back."

Pisarski and McMahon say the drop in miles traveled has had a greater impact on people living in far-flung suburbs, which were hardest hit by both the housing collapse and high gas prices, and those in rural communities.

John Crabtree, spokesman for the Center for Rural Affairs, a non-profit rural advocacy and economic development group based in Lyons, Neb., says it's "a double-edged sword" for many rural communities.

More people are shopping close to home, giving local merchants a boost. "But if you or your child need to go the doctor, and you live 40 miles form the nearest health care provider, it makes a difference whether gas is $2 a gallon or $3 a gallon," Crabtree says. "People are forced to make difficult choices."

The driving drop-off also signals a reversal in auto ownership among African Americans and Hispanics, which had been increasing since 1970, Pisarski says. "That will limit access to jobs, and will be a factor in the overall economy in getting people back to work," he says.

McMahon says his research shows that people over the past three years are trending toward compact, transit-oriented developments that mix residential, retail and office uses and encourage walking. Even when the economy recovers, he says, people won't resume driving at previous rates.

"We've crossed the Rubicon here in terms of a change," he says.

OIL SWINGS LOWER TODAY

2009-07-06T09:09:00.004-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/business/06oil.html?_r=1&hp

Swings in Oil Price Hobble Forecasting

THIS ARTICLE SHOWS UP ON NY TIMES TODAY, AND OIL IS HEADED DOWN, OIL HOARDERS DO NOT LIKE LIGHT SHONE ON THEM. OIL IS SLOWLY BECOMING IRRELEVANT AS CONSUMERS FIND ALTERNATIVES.
LESS TRAVEL, FEWER MILES DRIVEN, DEPRESSED ECONOMY ARE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS.

WHY DOES OIL PRICES SWING, IT IS WORTH A MORE INVESTIGATIVE LOOK.

MILK IS A REGULATED COMMODITY, WHY NOT OIL, WHY IS IT SCARED.

BING: A SUPER SUCESS

2009-06-27T09:48:00.003-04:00

BING , THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE REAL WINNER FOR MICROSOFT.
CHILDREN LOVE, SPECIALLY THOSE GRAPHICS ON THE BROWSER. SOME KIDS NOW LOG ON TO BING AS OPPOSED TO GOOGLE. I THINK IT LOOKS GREAT.

SO HANG TO THOSE MICROSOFT STOCKS, THEY ARE LIKELY TO RISE AND GO HIGHER.

$70 OIL, FREE MARKETS, SUPPLY & DEMAND, THE ECONOMIC *#@!()

2009-06-21T10:59:00.004-04:00

WHEN IT COMES TO OIL, ALL ECONOMIC THEORIES SUCH AS DEMAND AND SUPPLY, FALL BY THE WAY SIDE. TODAY IT IS CLOSE TO $70 A BBL, THE PRICE THE SAUDIS WANT. DEMAND FOR OIL IS FAIRLY LOW, SO HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THIS HIGH PRICE.

OILS IS BEING BOUGHT AND HOARDED FOR SPECULATIVE PURPOSES, , THIS DATA IS PUBLICLY AVAILABLE. TRADERS IN THIS COMMODITY HAVE KEPT IT HIGH.

THE QUESTIONS TO BE ASKED, HOW MUCH OF THIS SPECULATIVE MONEY BELONGS TO SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS, THESE ARE FUNDS RUN BY FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS.

SO PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THIS THE LAW OF SUPPLY OF DEMAND DEMAND DOES NOT WORK. THE JOE ON THE STREET IS BEING GOUGED BY THE BIG GUYS AS USUAL.

THIS WOULD CRY OUT FOR A GOVERNMENT INVESTIGATION, IT DID NOT HAPPEN IN THE PAST, WILL HAPPEN IT NOW., DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.

MORAL OF THE STORY: WHEN IT COMES TO OIL, LAWS OF NATURE, ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENTS DONT WORK.

OIL BELOW SIXTY DOLLARS, FOR HOW LONG

2008-11-13T19:54:00.002-05:00

OIL IS DOWN BELOW SIXTY DOLLARS. IT IS BACK TO ITS MORE NATURAL PRICE LEVEL. THE DEMAND HAS NOT DRAMATICALLY DECREASED, SO WHY IS IT LOWER.

THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON PERHAPS IS THE SPECULATORS ARE OUT OF THE OIL GAME. WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE STOCK MARKET, THE FUNDS FOR COMMODITY SPECULATION HAS DRIED UP. SO WE ARE BACK TO A NATURAL STATE OF THE PRICE OF OIL. THE DEMAND FROM EMERGING MARKETS MOST LIKELY HAS NOT TAPERED ONE BIT. THE REASON GIVEN FOR OIL BUBBLE WAS DEMAND FROM THE EMERGING MARKETS, THIS WAS BOGUS ISSUE ALL ALONG. THE OIL BUBBLE HAS NOW BURST AND OIL SHOULD BE IN THIS RANGE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS. WHEN THE SPECULATORS COME BACK OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AGAIN.

McCAIN, OBAMA WHO WINS

2008-08-08T17:39:00.005-04:00

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY OR IN NOVEMBER 08, McCAIN WOULD WIN. IT WILL BE A LANDSLIDE WIN. THERE ARE MANY REASONS FOR HIS COMING VICTORY. THE BIGGEST BEING OBAMA'S YOUTH AND LACK OF EXPERIENCE. IT IS ALWAYS FUN TO PREDICT, AND SAY I TOLD YOU SO.

OIL AFTER THE OLYMPICS

2008-08-06T10:33:00.004-04:00

OIL IS HEADED DOWN, DRIVEN SOUTH BY THE APPRECIATING DOLLAR AND LOWER DEMAND. THE DEMAND FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES SUCH AS INDIA AND CHINA WAS OVERRATED TO START WITH.

ONCE THE OLYMPICS ARE OVER EXPECT THE OIL TO BE DELOW $100, TRADING BETWEEN $90-$100. THE CONSUMER IS SPOOKED, THE DEMAND FOR OIL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE.

THE OIL BUBBLE HAS BURST AS PREDICTED.

2008-08-05T16:51:00.003-04:00

IN MY JUNE POST, I HAD PREDICTED THE BURSTING OF THE OIL BUBBLE. SO IT HAS.
HOW FAR DOWN WILL OIL GO. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE $70-$80 PER BARREL, BY YEARS END. CONSUMERS HAVE WOKEN UP AND ARE MOTIVATED TO CONSERVE AND USE LESS OIL. SO $ 75/BARREL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY,

THE MAJOR FINANCIAL COMPANY ANALYSTS PREDICTED OIL GOING TO $200/BARREL
THEY WERE WRONG ON SUB PRIME , AND ON OIL. MAY IT IS TIME FOR WALL STREET TO BE IN TOUCH WITH MAIN STREET.

OIL EVEN NOW PROVIDES THE BEST BANG FOR THE BUCK, ie IT PROVIDES A QUICK SOURCE OF ENERGY AND POWER. TILL A REAL ALTERNATIVE COMES ALONG OIL WILL BE MAIN SOURCE OF VEHICLE POWER.

Plenty of oil, No Buyers

2008-06-17T11:49:00.003-04:00

So much for the supply and demand theory. Pretty soon we shall see a drop in prices and one more speculative bubble in oil will burst.

From The Times
May 22, 2008
They're wrong about oil, by George

Rip up your textbooks, the doubling of oil prices has little to do with China's appetite

Now consider the situation today in oil markets: the Gulf, according to Mr Rothman, is crammed with supertankers chartered by oil-producing governments to hold the inventories of oil they are pumping but cannot sell. That physical oil is in excess supply at today's prices does not mean that producers are somehow cheating by storing their oil in tankers or keeping it in the ground. All it suggests is that there are few buyers for physical oil cargoes at today's prices, but there are plenty of buyers for pieces of paper linked to the price of oil next month and next year. This situation is exactly analogous to the bubble in credit markets a year ago, where nobody wanted to buy sub-prime mortgage bonds, but there was plenty of demand for “financial derivatives” that allowed investors to bet on the future value of these bonds.

In short, the standard economic assumption that supply and demand drive prices is only a starting point for understanding financial markets. In boom-bust cycles, the textbook theory is not just slightly inaccurate but totally wrong.

Good article, more@

[link to www.timesonline.co.uk]

OIL: SUBSIDIZING THE MIDDLE CLASS.

2008-06-09T10:16:00.002-04:00

INDIA AND CHINA SUBSIDE OIL\GAS TO THEIR PEOPLE. A FEW PRIVILEGED9 in the millions) IN INDIA AND CHINA OWN CARS. SO WE ARE WITNESSING A NEW PHENOMENA IN TWO POPULOUS SOCIALIST ECONOMIES TAKING FROM THE POOR AND LOWER MIDDLE CLASS AND GIVING A PRICE BREAK TO THE MIDDLE CLASS AND RICH. THIS KEEPS THE DEMAND FOR OIL HIGH AND PRICES HIGH IN THE WEST.

MAYBE TH

PEAK OIL DEMAND\$500 BARREL OIL

2008-03-25T09:49:00.005-04:00

PEAK OIL DEMAND THEORY IS THAT AT SOME POINT,IN THIRTY OR FORTY YEARS, NO MORE NEW OIL IS FOUND, THE DEMAND FOR OIL KEEPS RISING. SO IN ABOUT FIFTY TO SIXTY YEARS THERE IS VERY LITTLE OIL LEFT. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO US. IT MEANS OUR GRANDCHILDREN MAY NOT SEE A OIL BASED CAR, OR THEY MAY NEVER FLY ON A PLANE POWERED BY OIL.

TODAY WE MAKE FASTER COMPUTERS, GREAT SOCIAL WEBSITES, GOOGLES ETC, BUT NO MEANINGFUL ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOLUTIONS. THE BEST ENGINEERING TALENT IS MAKING THINGS THAT ARE FUN BUT MOSTLY IRRELEVANT TO OUR FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS.

THIS MEAN HIGHER OIL WHICH WE ARE ALREADY SEEING. OIL MAY BE AT $200/BARREL IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. $300/BARREL IN TEN TO FIFTEEN YEARS AND WE GO TO $500/BARREL BEFORE TWENTY FIVE YEARS. SO ONLY THE RICH WILL TRAVEL IN PLANES AND CARS.

THE QUESTION IS ,WILL WE BE ABLE TO REPLACE OIL AS A SOURCE OF ENERGY. THE ANSWER IS NO. WE MAY BE INCAPABLE OF REPLICATING A NATURE'S WONDER, OIL. SINCE PRIVATE ENTERPRISE LOOKS FOR SHORT TERM PROFITS, MODERN GOVTS ARE BEHOLDEN TO OIL INTERESTS, NO NEW TECHNOLOGY WILL EMERGE TO REPLACE OI, ALTERNATIVES MAYBE.

GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY DIFFERENT FUTURE FOR MANKIND , THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. SO LET US EXPLORE THIS ENVIRONMENT IN OUR FUTURE BLOGS

DEMOCRATS LOSE IT IN 08

2008-03-09T10:43:00.003-04:00

The Republicans have a Presidential nominee. The Democrats are in a slug fest, trying to select a nominee. In the process the Democrats have exposed their a seemingly disorganized selection process. Primaries,

THIS BLOG WAS WRITTEN IN MAR. LOOK LIKE I AM GOING TO RIGHT.

Mr Keith Big "O"

2008-03-09T09:52:00.003-04:00

Mr Keith O , of MSNBC has a great, humorous show. Interesting to watch, great political commentary. If you are looking for a super example of a pro Obama tilted TV anchor it is Mr Keith.
The only thing he lacks on the show is a Obama- Tshirt. Keith and his guests beat up on hillary every day, it is must watch to see a great example of the Obama tilted media.

INDIA: A CROWDED SUBCONTINENT

2007-09-15T08:21:00.000-04:00

A VISIT TO MUMBAI, BANGLORE, CHENNAI WILL GIVE YOU A GOOD FEEL FOR THE GROWING POPULATION OF MAJOR INDIAN CITIES. THEY ARE CROWDED, NOISY AND THE ROADS CLOGGED WITH TRAFFIC. IT IS HARD TO CROSS ROADS IN BANGALORE, EVEN ON ROADS THAT ARE NOT MAIN STREETS. SO EVERY DAY , THERE ARE HUMANS DYING IN BANGALORE TRYING TO CROSS A ROAD.

HOW ABOUT MORE TRAFFIC LIGHTS, HELPING PEOPLE CROSS AND FOR A BETTER TRAFFIC FLOW.

MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW MANY PEOPLE WILL A CITY HOLD, IS IT INFINITE?. HOW BIG CAN THEY GROW. HOW MAY CARS (TRAFFIC) CAN A CITY HANDLE. IS THERE NO LIMIT. HAS A LIMIT BEEN REACHED IN THESE INDIAN CITIES.

HOW BIG CAN THE INDIAN POPULATION GET TO 1.25 BILLION, 1.5 BILLION, 2 BILLION. IN INDIA TODAY, ONE RARELY FINDS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGES ABOUT LIMITING FAMILY UNLIKE IN THE PAST. WHY IS POPULATION CONTROL A PRIORITY IN CHINA BUT NOT IN INDIA.

A BULGING POPULATION IN INDIA , COULD BE ITS BIGGEST PROBLEM.

US INVESTS IN AMERICAN TECH

2007-08-12T09:53:00.000-04:00

SOME TIME THIS MONTH PRESIDENT BUSH SIGNED A BILL THAT ALLOWS SPENDING OF NEARLY 33 BILLION DOLLARS IN TECHNOLOGY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE MOST OF US MISSED THIS NEWS ITEM AS IT WAS BARELY REPORTED. IT IS NEWS THAT SHOULD GIVE TECHIES HOPE. ALSO PROVIDES HOPE FOR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FANS. IT ALSO HOPES TO ATTRACT GLOBAL TECH TALENT. PERHAPS THIS WILL REDUCE THE BRAIN DRAIN. MOST IMPORTANT PERHAPS THERE IS A RECOGNITION THAT IT MAY BE TIME TO RESPECT THE NERDS AND MAKE MORE OF THEM FOR THE GOOD OF THIS COUNTRY

Today, President Bush Signed Into Law The America Creating Opportunities To Meaningfully Promote Excellence In Technology, Education, And Science Act (America COMPETES). This bill shares the goals of the President's American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI), a comprehensive strategy to keep America the most innovative nation in the world by strengthening our scientific education and research, improving our technological enterprise, attracting the world's best and brightest workers, and providing 21st century job training.

BRAIN DRAIN TO HYDERABAD

2007-08-12T00:25:00.000-04:00

JUST MET AN INDIAN IT TECH EXPERT RETURNING TO INDIA AFTER WORKING IN THE USA FOR OVER 15 YRS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY . HE FOUND A PLACE IN INDIA HE LIKES. SO HE WILL MOVE SHORTLY. HE HAS GOOD 10 YRS OF WORKING LIFE LEFT IF HE WISHES TO STAY IN THE USA. HE THINKS IT MAY BE TIME TO ENJOY INDIA. HOW MANY ARE OUT THERE WHO THINK IT IS BETTER TO RELOCATE TO HYDERABAD OR BANGALORE, INSTEAD OF SAN DIEGO. THERE IS A SLOW TRICKLE OF IT TALENT TO INDIA, REGARDLESS OF INDIAN CONDITIONS. IS IT THE TROPICS OR HOME COOKED FOOD OR THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY OR THE X FACTOR AND WHAT IS X.